Thursday, October 8, 2015

Canadian election Oct 19, 2015 - My thoughts

RE:Canadian Election - some thoughts 

What do I think will be the outcome? - it will be a minority government - no one party will have 170 seats and none are likely to be close to that number.

Which party will have the most seats and is likely to be asked to try and form a government? At one time any of the three major parties appeared through polling etc to have a chance with emerging with the most seats.

All three main parties have they geographical strong points - the Liberals in the East sans Quebec, the Conservatives in the West and parts of Ontario and the NDP in Quebec and somewhat in Ontario and BC.

In the last week or two the NDP campaign seems to have faltered and their support for the most part seems to have moved to the Liberals and as of this morning many of the polling firms have the the Conservatives and the Liberals neck and neck in the popular vote and the Conservatives with a slight lead in the seat count.

Some of my political friends feel the Liberals will come out on top and one even suggests a Liberal majority. I have one die in the wool Young Conservative who volunteers at the BC Lions games who still thinks the Conservative will win a majority.

Having studied the parties, platforms, polls etc over the past weeks I still can't determine whether Harper will still be Prime Minister with a minority or Trudeau will follow in his dad's footstep and be Prime Minister elect.
However since I am used to having egg on my face and tears in my eyes over wrong predictions I will predict that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals will end up with the most seats.

Let the flaming begin.


Postscript - well I did predict the Liberals winning and i did say they would have the most seats - so I will gloat and say that i got it right this time.


No comments: