Lots of comments about the election and how the polls were so WRONG BUT WERE THEY REALLY WRONG.
Were they really right but not read right.
Going into election day the margin was somewhere around 6% between the parties - the Liberals around 37% and the NDP around 43% - the Greens around 9% and the Conservatives around 8 %.
It has been reported in the press that both parties had the NDP with about 4% lead on election eve.
Polls are considered to have a +/- factor off around 3 - 5 % so let's take it at 4%.
This could put the Liberals as low as 33% and as high as 41%
The NDP at 39% or 47%.
So how did the Liberals win.
Some say the Greens split the center left vote but there poll numbers and actual vote % are almost dead on so there wasn't any apparent shift in support at the last minute.
In fact the NDP got 39% and the Liberals got 44% so where did the Liberals get there additional 3% - well the Conservatives only got around 4% which would be the low end of the +/- for them.
There is about a 4% difference in the Cons poll vs actual number so instead of splitting the centre right vote - it collapsed to the Liberals and help put there numbers into the actual percentage.
This is my no means scientific just my random thoughts on how it might have happened.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
I am reposting my thoughts on the BC election upset here from my Facebook entries.
Spending today resting up after having a very long day yesterday - first working the election - got that finished around 9:30 PM - with one exception I had 25 great team players - I don't assign them - HQ's does that so you don't know for sure if two people working together for the first time will gel as a unit - each poll had a voting clerk who records the vote and a voting officer who ensures that the ballots gets into the box and are accurately counted at the end of the evening. We had a very large turnout for what we call the Absentee ballot - in BC you can vote on election day at any poll in the province for the candidate that lives in our riding - this is why it is called absentee - having a downtown location we were swamped with people using this option - we had over 450 absentee votes - these will not be counted until the final count is done in 13 days.
After finishing up at the polling station I had to deliver the ballot boxes and supplies back to our headquarters - naturally having an iinquiring mind I turned on the car radio and at first I thought my fading hearing was playing games with me - was I hearing right - the Premier was losing her seat - no surprise there as it was deemed a close race and likely to go either way - but the Liberals woulod be forming a government - that was the first shock - okay I said to myself - they have squeezed out a victory with the most seats and might need the help of one of lesser parties - then I heard it and the second shock - 51 Seats for the Liberals - that was more than the won with in the last election and they were claiming seats they hadn't won in years - now remember I am still driving to HQ's - keep you eyes on the road - finally at HQ's - they hadn't heard the results and like me were dumbfounded with the result.
Steady Dennis - you are not home yet - still need to drop the truck at the apartment - eyes on the road for three more blocks then you can head for the big victory party three blocks away.
Truck safely parked - quick dash to the apartment to drop off some personal items and then out the door and on to the Sheraton Wall Center - first stop is at the HQ's of my newly elected member of the legislature Sam Sullivan - former Vancouver mayor - he had already left and headed to the main ball room which was packed with jubilant Liberals and lots of media - couldn't find anyone who I knew there that saw the upset and of this magnitude and before long Christie was coming into the hall and we started a 4 MORE YEARS chant - after hearing her speak I left and headed for coffee and bite and met up with my long time and non-political friends who told me that he knew she would win because IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID.
It's appears that he may be right - in looking at the results - while we lost couple of seats in socialist Vancouver and one in Burnaby and a couple on Vancouver Island we won seats back in the suburbs and in the interior where there are less concerned about oil tankers on the coast and chicken coops in the back yards of $1 million west side home owners and more concerned about putting food on the table for their families.
I finally got to bed about 3AM this morning.
Finale - not sure if any earthquake rumblings were recorded last night but with the number of people jumping on one bandwagon and off another I could have happened.
So what's next for Christie - she will need a seat - this will be addressed once the final count is released on May 27 - they will run her in a very safe seat where the fallout of asking a newly re-elected MLA to step aside won't cause another embarassment - I think the most logical is West Vancouver - Capilano - Ralph Sultan was elected by a huge margin - he is also 80 years old - others mentioned are Linda Read in Richmond East and Gordon Hogg in White Rock - regardless of which one of those three - all will get a handsome pension although Ralph's given his age might be the least costly of the three.
The Liberals lost two Cabinet Ministers but elected a lot of new comers - many of the old guard didn't run - some because of the fear of sitting in opposition and others for a variety of reasons.
While a little thin on Vancouver Island - only two seats - mid Island although one Saanich North was lost by about 50 votes and could change at final count she will have representation from all areas of the Province. She also is now the boss and any former Campbellites who cross her won't be in Cabinet.
One riding that was of interest to me was Kootenay East - that's where my paternal roots are - it is also a heavily unionized area with all the coal miners in the Elk Valley - it is also I believe the only riding in the Province that had only two candidates - a sitting and little eccentric member in Bill Bennett and a NDP opponent - most though this would a close vote given the union's usual support for the NDP - VERY WRONG - a 5000 + vote victory for the Liberals.
That's my feelings and take on the election.