Wednesday, May 15, 2013

More post election thoughts - May 15, 2013

Lots of comments about the election and how the polls were so WRONG BUT WERE THEY REALLY WRONG.

Were they really right but not read right.

Going into election day the margin was somewhere around 6% between the parties  - the Liberals around 37%  and the NDP around 43% - the Greens around 9% and the Conservatives around 8 %.

It has been reported in the press that both parties had the NDP with about 4% lead on election eve.

Polls are considered to have a +/- factor off around 3 - 5 % so let's take it at 4%.

This could put the Liberals as low as 33% and as high as 41%

The NDP at 39% or 47%.

So how did the Liberals win.

Some say the Greens split the center left vote but there poll numbers and actual vote % are almost dead on so there wasn't any apparent shift in support at the last minute.

In fact the NDP got 39% and the Liberals got 44% so where did the Liberals get there additional 3% - well the Conservatives only got around 4% which would be the low end of the +/- for them.

There is about a 4% difference in the Cons poll vs actual number so instead of splitting the centre right vote - it collapsed to the Liberals and help put there numbers into the actual percentage.

This is my no means scientific just my random thoughts on how it might have happened.

Cheers

















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